Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
