Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.